I predict that robotics will gain popularity in the average house hold within the next 5-10 years. This is if the pace at which people live their lives today does not slow down. Like many working adults, keeping up with work and life can be a big challenge for me, let alone the family obligations.
Robotic help with the mundane house hold chores would be a great stress releiver as coming back to a clean house and a freshly cooked healthy meal is priceless. It would improve our immune systems which would in turn reduce the related medical bills. Additionally, our time would be freed up to focus on the more important things in life, a purpose driven life.
Discuss the Delphi process and how we can modify it to collaborate and gain consensus. Some of the modifications to the process are anonymous, but anonymity takes time.
The Delphi process dates back to 1944 when General Arnold was forcasting the technological capabilities of interest to the militay. This technique allows the experts to explore ideas or produce relevant information for decision making. The most critical issue is that all participants must be well informed and undertand the goal of the Delphi process so that they do not answer questions inappropriately. The ten most common steps that must be included in the Delphi Method are:
a) Formation of the team of experts to undertake and to monitor the Delphi on the specified subject.
b) Select the panel(s) of participants in the exercise. The panels are the experts in the area to be investigated. Number of participants is dependent on the study design, minimum required is 4.
c) Develop the first round of the Delphi questionnaire.
d) Test the questionaire for proper wording, remove ambiguities.
e) Present this initial questionaire to the panelists.
f) Analyze their first responses.
g) Make the necessary modifications and retest.
h) Present this new version to the panelists.
i) Analyze their responses. Iterate (f) through (i) to achieve reliable and cerdible results.
j) The analysis team prepares a conclusive report of the opinions obtained. The panel view point is statistically summarized.
Other important factors to consider for a successful Delphi process are the communication process, location of the participants, available tools and techniques and a high level idea of the results to be expected from their application.
How can we hasten the process?
We can expedite this process by providing the agenda before hand so that the participants can research for more thorough and informed responses.
Creating templates where applicable from past Delphi techniques would save execution time.
A weighting system based on votes would speed up the evaluations.
How does open or closed collaboration affect the results?
Open collaboration encourages brain storming and group creativity which generates a large quantity of ideas. The closed collaboration and anonymity promotes individual creativity and quality ideas with depth. It prevents group think where individuals try to minimize conflict within the group by reaching a consensus without critically testing, analyzing or evaluating the ideas.
Some concerns about using the Delphi process is the evaluation criteria of the experts ability to forcast, some experts may be poor forecasters, example is forecasting future events without taking into consideration the the holistic view or context of these future events. This makes the forcast less relaible and applicable to the future.
Secondly, the Delphi process can be executed in an unsystematic manner which makes the process and subsequent results questionable. The iterations can also be repeated with the hopes of manipulating the responses in the desired direction.
The Delphi process dates back to 1944 when General Arnold was forcasting the technological capabilities of interest to the militay. This technique allows the experts to explore ideas or produce relevant information for decision making. The most critical issue is that all participants must be well informed and undertand the goal of the Delphi process so that they do not answer questions inappropriately. The ten most common steps that must be included in the Delphi Method are:
a) Formation of the team of experts to undertake and to monitor the Delphi on the specified subject.
b) Select the panel(s) of participants in the exercise. The panels are the experts in the area to be investigated. Number of participants is dependent on the study design, minimum required is 4.
c) Develop the first round of the Delphi questionnaire.
d) Test the questionaire for proper wording, remove ambiguities.
e) Present this initial questionaire to the panelists.
f) Analyze their first responses.
g) Make the necessary modifications and retest.
h) Present this new version to the panelists.
i) Analyze their responses. Iterate (f) through (i) to achieve reliable and cerdible results.
j) The analysis team prepares a conclusive report of the opinions obtained. The panel view point is statistically summarized.
Other important factors to consider for a successful Delphi process are the communication process, location of the participants, available tools and techniques and a high level idea of the results to be expected from their application.
How can we hasten the process?
We can expedite this process by providing the agenda before hand so that the participants can research for more thorough and informed responses.
Creating templates where applicable from past Delphi techniques would save execution time.
A weighting system based on votes would speed up the evaluations.
How does open or closed collaboration affect the results?
Open collaboration encourages brain storming and group creativity which generates a large quantity of ideas. The closed collaboration and anonymity promotes individual creativity and quality ideas with depth. It prevents group think where individuals try to minimize conflict within the group by reaching a consensus without critically testing, analyzing or evaluating the ideas.
Some concerns about using the Delphi process is the evaluation criteria of the experts ability to forcast, some experts may be poor forecasters, example is forecasting future events without taking into consideration the the holistic view or context of these future events. This makes the forcast less relaible and applicable to the future.
Secondly, the Delphi process can be executed in an unsystematic manner which makes the process and subsequent results questionable. The iterations can also be repeated with the hopes of manipulating the responses in the desired direction.
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